WELCOME TO “THE SCOOP”
Everything You Need to Know About the Northern Colorado Real Estate Market Produced Quarterly by Windermere Real Estate in Northern Colorado
CONTACT US
970-460-3033 www.WindermereNoCo.com
FORT COLLINS: 255 E. Monroe Drive, Suite 2 | Fort Collins, CO 80525 WINDSOR: 207 4th Street | Windsor, CO 80550
LONG TERM HOME PRICES LARIMER COUNTY
A trusted resource is the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) which tracks nearly 300 markets across the country and produces a quarterly price appreciation index.
To obtain detailed price information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
LONG TERM HOME PRICES WELD COUNTY
A trusted resource is the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) which tracks nearly 300 markets across the country and produces a quarterly price appreciation index.
To obtain detailed price information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
AT LEAST LIST
A frequent and legitimate question asked by buyers is, “Do you think they will take a low offer?” They, understandably, want to know if there is an opportunity to ‘wheel and deal.’ Quite frankly, the numbers don’t support this approach.
Two-thirds of properties in Northern Colorado sell for at least list price. Less than 5% sell for a significant discount from list price.
The following chart breaks down each region and how many sales
occur at various Sale Price to List Price Ratios:
To obtain detailed price information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
TOP STATES FOR HOME PRICE APPRECIATION LAST 30 YEARS
To obtain detailed price information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
SYSTEMIC UNDERSUPPLY
The Colorado Front Range, like most markets across the country, is experiencing a systemic undersupply of housing. This dynamic has a significant impact on our market and will likely not change over the next few years. The active inventory today, while higher than one year ago, is still:
❱❱ 50% of the long-term average ❱❱ 20% of the peak in 2006
Many people worry about prices crashing as the market slows down. The reality is the market is driven by the simple economic forces of supply and demand. There were five times as many homes on the market in 2006 as compared to today, even though population and housing stock is much higher.
The main reason why housing supply is so low is because new home construction is behind and has been for 15 years. There were fewer new homes built in the decade ending 2018 than in any other decade since the 1960’s. Freddie Mac estimates the United States is under-supplied by 3.8 million housing units.
The undersupply is “systemic” because home builders face challenges that are deeply rooted and are unlikely to change soon. These include:
❱❱ Material Shortages ❱❱ Labor Shortages ❱❱ Labor Cost
❱❱ Supply Chain Issues
❱❱ Land Availability
❱❱ Land Cost
❱❱ Water Availability
❱❱ Challenging Approval Processes
Our clients need to know that even though the market has cooled because of higher ratesl,ow supply will persist and will insulate us against anything like a market crash.
To obtain detailed price information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
COMPARING THE MARKET
“What does today’s market remind you of?”
That is a question we hear frequently from our clients as they wonder where the market is headed. Here is our answer: There are individual components of the market that are similar to certain points in history, but all of the current components make for a real estate market that is unique.
❱❱ Is this market like 2008 and 2009? Not even close. That market had almost four times as many homes for sale. Additionally, homeowners then had far less equity and much riskier loans.
❱❱ Is this market like 1980 to 1982? Not at all. Yes, there was inflation then, but it was three times higher than today. Yes, interest rates had increased then, but they increased all the way to 18%. Plus, unemployment back then peaked at 10%, whereas today it is only
3.5%.
Some individual components are similar to certain times in the past. For example:
❱❱ 30-year mortgage rates resemble 2001 to mid-2008 ❱❱ Days on Market is akin to mid-2015 thru 2018
By far, the component that makes today’s market most unique is inventory. There really hasn’t been any time in recent history when the number of homes for sale has been so low for so long. There has been less than two months of supply on the market for almost three years. So today is not like any other market. The Front Range market will continue to perform because there is strong demand and low supply.
To obtain detailed price information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
THE "R" WORD
In the great words of our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, “recessions happen.” Many economists predict a recession within the next couple of years which makes people wonder what will happen to home prices. Using data from the Federal Housing Finance Authority’s Home Price Index, we researched what happens to local home prices during recessions. Except for the housing-led recession of 2008, home prices along the Front Range actually increased in each instance showing the long-term strength of our market.
To obtain detailed price information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
MARKET HEADING
Highly unique dynamics in the real estate market has people wondering, ”Where are we headed?” Because of a few fundamental factors, we are highly confident about one thing -- prices have no chance of crashing. The two simple economic forces of supply and demand are acting on our market in a considerable way and there is nothing on the horizon telling us that these forces will change significantly for the foreseeable future.
To obtain detailed market information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
BACK TO BASICS
Gonearethedayswhenahousecanbethrownonthmearket withlittleornomarketing,inlessthanideaclondition,and stillreceivemultipleoffersaboveaskingpriceS.ellersarefinding areturn to basic fundamentals is essentiatlo have their propertysell. This includes:
❱❱ A full complement of professional photography ❱❱ Video tours and 3-D images
❱❱ Full color brochure
❱❱ Staging and decluttering
❱❱ Cosmetic updates and repairs
To obtain detailed price information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
REVIEW YOUR VALUE
The beginning of the year is the perfect time for a Property Review. It will answer the question you likely have, “What is my home worth?” We are happy to provide you with a market snapshot to answer that question. Even if you have no plans to sell in the near future, this quick report will give you a lot of clarity about your home and the market in general. If this would be helpful to you, reach out to your Windermere Broker and they will send you a customized review right away.
To obtain detailed market information, contact us at 970-460-3033. www.WindermereNoCo.com
